The COVID-19 epidemic is far from over😷😷😷

Recently, the counter-attack of COVID-19 epidemic will cause schools to be forced to close and classes to be suspended. People received the COVID-19 vaccine will still face a new round of infection. When the hospital is overwhelmed again, office workers will also weigh whether they need to continue working at home. 
Scientists believe that before the end of COVID-19 epidemic, almost everyone has either been infected with the COVID-19 virus or vaccinated with the COVID-19 vaccine or maybe both. A few unlucky people may be infected with COVID-19 more than once. Before all human beings are infected with the virus, the race between the virus mutation and vaccination will not end.
Dr. Michael Osterholm, American Covid-19 consultant, he said that the cases around the world continue to rise and then decline. It may be a sharp decline. However, he think it is likely that there will be a sharp rise again in the autumn and winter of this year. There are still billions of people in the world who have not been vaccinated and there is currently very little chance of eradicating the virus. Then, as the economy reopens, it is expected that more new cases will appear in public transportation, workplaces  schools in the coming months. Even if the immunization rate rises, there will still be people who are vulnerable to COVID-19: newborns, people who are unable or unwilling to receive the vaccine and people have been vaccinated with the vaccine but have breakthrough infections because of the reduced protection of the vaccine. 

COVID-19 vs. Other epidemics

An Epidemiologist pointed out that there were 5 well-documented epidemics in the past 130 years, they provide some inspiration for the future development of COVID-19 epidemic. Although the longest global flu has lasted for five years, the average cycle is two to three years with two to four rounds of infection. However, COVID-19 may not follow the development pattern of past epidemics. This is a new type of pathogen that is potentially more infectious. So far, the death toll from the new crown epidemic has exceeded 4.7 million. Vaccination can effectively reduce the rate of severe illness and mortality.  The vaccination rate continues to increase, but the rise in infection means that the virus is infecting teenagers and other people who have not been vaccinated. It is leading to an increase in the rate of severe illness in these groups. Countries with low COVID-19 vaccination rates are facing the largest outbreak so far due to the emergence of the delta variant strain. With the delta variant strains raging in many countries, another new variant strain is likely to emerge.

Experience has shown that people usually think that the pathogenicity of the virus will diminish over time, so that all hosts will not be completely wiped out, but this idea is not correct. Although the pathogenicity of new mutant strains is not necessarily more serious, as the virus is constantly adapting to new hosts during the epidemic. Its fatality rate may actually be higher.

Some researchers said that the new coronavirus may be completely resistant to the first-generation new coronavirus vaccine. As the virus continues to evolve, we may need to be vaccinated regularly to effectively deal with the new coronavirus just like preventing the flu.

When will the COVID-19 epidemic end?

Experts generally believe that only when most people (approximately 90% to 95% of the global population) have gained a certain degree of immunity through COVID-19 vaccination or infection, the current epidemic can be controlled. They believe that the key to controlling the epidemic should be the vaccination of COVID-19 vaccine. If people are not vaccinated, the virus may spread widely in the autumn and winter of this year and almost everyone will be infected by that time. 

An associate professor of medical history at Oxford University believes that the end of the COVID-19 epidemic will vary in different regions, just like the time of the outbreak. Governments will have to make decisions about the extent to which they can tolerate coexistence with the virus. The response measures taken vary greatly. Although some countries strive to achieve zero cases of COVID-19, it is unlikely that the world will completely eradicate the virus.

🔑We must remain alert and treat the COVID-19 epidemic with caution. If anyone thinks that we will be able to resolve the pandemic in the next few days or months, that would be a big mistake.